Continued Bearish Outlook
- On Wednesday, Jerome Powell announced that the Fed may start slowing rates in December
- Every time the Fed pivots from QT to QE, there’s a major market correction / recession at -50% with major unemployment
- Powell is still looking for higher unemployment to lower demand
- Higher unemployment will have major consequences on the overall health of the economy
- The Fed created this problem and they’re “fixing” it at the middle class’s expense
Dollar Strength Index / $DXY
- RSI moves down but price lows stay at same levels
- This means we can expect the dollar to get stronger at the expense of equities and crypto in the coming weeks
- If DXY bottoms locally here, we can expect another swing up over the next couple weeks, particularly if FOMC brings any surprises in the middle of December
S&P 500 / $SPY
- S&P bounced off resistance a fourth time as expected
- Next bottom target remains at ~$320
- Unless price breaks out of resistance and prints something higher than $431, I’m remaining bearish
- You can assess your risk at this crucial level
- Prices could rally up going into the holiday – this remains a possibility
- Or price could melt down from here like it has historically after a Fed pivot
- I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fake-out at these levels
Bitcoin / $BTC
- RSI is rising but price keeps dropping – great indicator that we could be making new lows
- Price is channeling through a bear wedge and price action remains weak
- Still unclear if crypto lender Genesis will secure funding to stay solvent