Continued Bearish Outlook

  • Every time the Fed pivots from QT to QE, there’s a major market correction / recession at -50% with major unemployment
  • Powell is still looking for higher unemployment to lower demand
    • Higher unemployment will have major consequences on the overall health of the economy
    • The Fed created this problem and they’re “fixing” it at the middle class’s expense

Dollar Strength Index / $DXY

  • RSI moves down but price lows stay at same levels
    • This means we can expect the dollar to get stronger at the expense of equities and crypto in the coming weeks
  • If DXY bottoms locally here, we can expect another swing up over the next couple weeks, particularly if FOMC brings any surprises in the middle of December

S&P 500 / $SPY

  • S&P bounced off resistance a fourth time as expected
  • Next bottom target remains at ~$320
  • Unless price breaks out of resistance and prints something higher than $431, I’m remaining bearish
  • You can assess your risk at this crucial level
    • Prices could rally up going into the holiday – this remains a possibility
    • Or price could melt down from here like it has historically after a Fed pivot
  • I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fake-out at these levels

Bitcoin / $BTC

  • RSI is rising but price keeps dropping – great indicator that we could be making new lows
  • Price is channeling through a bear wedge and price action remains weak
  • Still unclear if crypto lender Genesis will secure funding to stay solvent

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *