Skip to content

Money Monday: End of the Bear Rally


  • Credit card loans and credit card delinquency rates are outpacing personal savings rates
  • The DXY is oversold – right on time as the S&P 500 tests a key resistance level
  • SPY is in a crucial volatility zone – breakout from resistance looks unlikely as RSI is oversold
  • Stocks like Microsoft are stuck in a broadening bottom pattern
    Volatility increasing as price struggling to break resistance
  • Crypto price direction will be determined largely by whether or not Genesis can raise funds to stay solvent.
    • Bitcoin price continues to snake through a bear flag / bear pennant structure
    • Main target range remains at ~$14k
    • Ethereum looks weak as well

Personal Debt

  • Credit card loans and credit card delinquency rates are outpacing personal savings rates
  • In 2008 is was over-leverage big banks that killed the markets – this time it might be personal debt

Dollar Strength Index / $DXY

  • RSI shows oversold
  • After such a major drop, a rebound at these levels looks likely
  • This is bad news for equities

S&P 500 / $SPY

  • Price is likely to bounce down from ~$400
  • RSI is oversold as well, so we should expect volatility in this range before correcting back to ~$355 or lower
  • If price can find support at $390 and crab from there, then there should be an increased likelihood of a breakout from resistance

Microsoft / $MSFT

  • Bearish broadening bottom with a 5th wave likely below $200
  • Possible sell signal here at ~$240

Bitcoin / $BTC

  • Price structure moved from a bear pennant to a bear flag
    • Target remains at $14k
  • Price couldn’t break through the red resistance line 4 times in the last four weeks
    • RSI is making higher-lows while printed price is making lower-lows
    • Price strength is waning
  • Green box is the short term potential for an upswing
    • Red box is my long term potential for downside

Ethereum / $ETH

  • Price continues to wrap around a key level around ~$1273
  • Price is getting squeezed with main targets at around $600 for the bottom of this cycle