TL;DR
- Credit card loans and credit card delinquency rates are outpacing personal savings rates
- The DXY is oversold – right on time as the S&P 500 tests a key resistance level
- SPY is in a crucial volatility zone – breakout from resistance looks unlikely as RSI is oversold
- Stocks like Microsoft are stuck in a broadening bottom pattern
Volatility increasing as price struggling to break resistance - Crypto price direction will be determined largely by whether or not Genesis can raise funds to stay solvent.
- Bitcoin price continues to snake through a bear flag / bear pennant structure
- Main target range remains at ~$14k
- Ethereum looks weak as well
Personal Debt
- Credit card loans and credit card delinquency rates are outpacing personal savings rates
- In 2008 is was over-leverage big banks that killed the markets – this time it might be personal debt
Dollar Strength Index / $DXY
- RSI shows oversold
- After such a major drop, a rebound at these levels looks likely
- This is bad news for equities
S&P 500 / $SPY
- Price is likely to bounce down from ~$400
- RSI is oversold as well, so we should expect volatility in this range before correcting back to ~$355 or lower
- If price can find support at $390 and crab from there, then there should be an increased likelihood of a breakout from resistance
Microsoft / $MSFT
- Bearish broadening bottom with a 5th wave likely below $200
- Possible sell signal here at ~$240
Bitcoin / $BTC
- Price structure moved from a bear pennant to a bear flag
- Target remains at $14k
- Price couldn’t break through the red resistance line 4 times in the last four weeks
- RSI is making higher-lows while printed price is making lower-lows
- Price strength is waning
- Green box is the short term potential for an upswing
- Red box is my long term potential for downside
Ethereum / $ETH
- Price continues to wrap around a key level around ~$1273
- Price is getting squeezed with main targets at around $600 for the bottom of this cycle