Take note
- Crypto broker Genesis owes Winklevoss exchange’s customers $900mn
- Lumber Prices Can’t Stop Falling. The Housing Market Is Struggling
- Wall Street hunts for recession plays to weather potential 2023 turbulence
- Biden Hails Semiconductor Plant as ‘Game Changer’ for American Manufacturing
What does this mean?
- The crypto bottom for this cycle is probably not yet in as Genesis could still go bankrupt
- If Genesis goes, Digital Currency Group could potentially be next
- Lumber prices falling tell me your home isn’t worth what you think it is
- It’s not a coincidence that lumber stocks are falling with home prices
- A 2023 recession is probably already priced in (or being priced in) by smart money
- This is where retail will get wrecked
- I suspect semiconductor stocks will move up as the US finds opportunities at home
S&P 500 / $SPY
- Price bounced off down-trending resistance
- RSI is overbought, so we can expect a swing to the downside from here
- I’m calling a bottom for the S&P this cycle at ~$320 – barring a black swan event and we see a waterfall drop in price
- Margin calls, credit card delinquencies could trigger a sharp crash similar to 2008 if we don’t find a bottom at ~$320 range
Nvidia / $NVDA
- Price structure here is an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern or a broadening bottom
- Either way, this is a bottoming structure for Nvidia.
- There are many opportunities to buy in here if semiconductors are on your watchlist
Tyson / $TSN
- Similar patterns to 2008 crash, so I am being cautious at these levels
- Price appears to be bottoming out at 2020 levels
- This price range was the same bottom range in 2016/2017 and again in 2018 as well
- Grey shaded areas could be good opportunities to DCA
Archer-Daniels-Midland / $ADM
- ADM is topping out on multiple technical levels
- Three times price tested resistance and couldn’t break above $98.88 – this is bearish from a technical perspective
- A head and shoulders pattern appears to be forming
- Food as a commodity appears to be signaling bearish signs that prices could go much lower
Weyerhaeuser / $WY
- Price action is taking a staircase down
- These little bear flags tell us the next line of support is at $26.51
- This is where I plan to DCA
- We can assume that home prices will continue to fall with rising interest rates and lumber prices falling
Bitcoin / $BTC
- This is a good bottoming structure for Bitcoin, but RSI tells a different story
- RSI bottoms continue to rise while price goes down
- Target bottom remains at $14k, particularly if Genesis goes bankrupt
- That doesn’t mean there won’t be small opportunities to buy in and out on the way down
- Assess your risk levels and time horizons accordingly