Take note

What does this mean?

  • The crypto bottom for this cycle is probably not yet in as Genesis could still go bankrupt
    • If Genesis goes, Digital Currency Group could potentially be next
  • Lumber prices falling tell me your home isn’t worth what you think it is
    • It’s not a coincidence that lumber stocks are falling with home prices
  • A 2023 recession is probably already priced in (or being priced in) by smart money
    • This is where retail will get wrecked
  • I suspect semiconductor stocks will move up as the US finds opportunities at home

S&P 500 / $SPY

  • Price bounced off down-trending resistance
  • RSI is overbought, so we can expect a swing to the downside from here
  • I’m calling a bottom for the S&P this cycle at ~$320 – barring a black swan event and we see a waterfall drop in price
    • Margin calls, credit card delinquencies could trigger a sharp crash similar to 2008 if we don’t find a bottom at ~$320 range

Nvidia / $NVDA

  • Price structure here is an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern or a broadening bottom
    • Either way, this is a bottoming structure for Nvidia.
  • There are many opportunities to buy in here if semiconductors are on your watchlist

Tyson / $TSN

  • Similar patterns to 2008 crash, so I am being cautious at these levels
  • Price appears to be bottoming out at 2020 levels
    • This price range was the same bottom range in 2016/2017 and again in 2018 as well
  • Grey shaded areas could be good opportunities to DCA

Archer-Daniels-Midland / $ADM

  • ADM is topping out on multiple technical levels
  • Three times price tested resistance and couldn’t break above $98.88 – this is bearish from a technical perspective
  • A head and shoulders pattern appears to be forming
  • Food as a commodity appears to be signaling bearish signs that prices could go much lower

Weyerhaeuser / $WY

  • Price action is taking a staircase down
    • These little bear flags tell us the next line of support is at $26.51
    • This is where I plan to DCA
  • We can assume that home prices will continue to fall with rising interest rates and lumber prices falling

Bitcoin / $BTC

  • This is a good bottoming structure for Bitcoin, but RSI tells a different story
    • RSI bottoms continue to rise while price goes down
  • Target bottom remains at $14k, particularly if Genesis goes bankrupt
  • That doesn’t mean there won’t be small opportunities to buy in and out on the way down
    • Assess your risk levels and time horizons accordingly

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