Important dates that could effect the markets this week:
- The November FOMC Meeting is next Wednesday, November 2
- Midterm Elections are Tuesday, November 8
S&P 500 ($SPY)
- The SPY is on track for a small bear market rally
- This could be a good entry for a short-term position to exit before the the market prices in Fed Interest Rate Hikes next week
- Good position to make 3% to 3.5% if the rally plays out
- Here are some possible scenarios:
- Depending on how you trade, the peak identified at ~$389 level could be a good exit point to make 3% to 3.5% if you enter now
- But keep in mind that the market could rally higher and retest the main resistance line from ATH
- Exiting at ~$389 could mean you’ll miss out on additional gains – you need to assess your risk & greed levels
- Consult with a financial advisor. Assess your risk tolerances, your time horizon, and goals.
- NOTE:
- This scenario assumes the Fed will raise rates at 75bp – anything higher and the markets will take a larger hit than anticipated
- There’s a possibility next week the Fed will raise rates less than 75bp – or not raise rates at all – to amplify the bear rally ahead of Midterm Elections on November 8
- Also note that Interest Rates are usually priced into the market about 1 week before the Fed makes its decision
- 80% of my portfolio is still in cash – I’m waiting for another crash before buying in my next 20%
- I’m heavy on the $SPY and the following commodities:
- Copper ($COPX)
- Lumber ($LPX)
- Energy ($SWN)
- Oil ($OXY)
- I’m heavy on the $SPY and the following commodities:
Bitcoin / $BTC
- Bitcoin is slowly creeping out of the resistance downtrend (on a logarithmic scale)
- I’m ‘bullish’ here because it’s affirming my thesis that crypto has entered an accumulation phase after capitulation.
- This is where I’m accumulating on the dips. Here’s what I’m accumulating:
- Polygon / $MATIC
- Algorand / $ALGO
- Cosmos / $ATOM
- Polkadot / $DOT
- NOTE:
- Bitcoin price action has been more stable and sometimes outperforming the S&P 500
- This leads me to believe that capitulating events are temporarily over for crypto
- This could be a good range to accumulate Bitcoin and other notable altcoins in preparation for the next bull run
- I’m of the opinion that we won’t see another bull run till the latter half of 2023 going into 2024
- So I’m using this opportunity to accumulate coins at cheap prices
- Bitcoin price action has been more stable and sometimes outperforming the S&P 500
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