TL;DR

  • Crypto is going lower – just a matter of when
    • With crypto lender Genesis on the verge of bankruptcy, the next leg down could be anywhere between a couple days or a couple weeks from now
    • It’s impossible to time the market perfectly, but failing to prepare and preparing to fail
      • Adjust your risk levels accordingly
  • As usual, I cannot offer advice, but here’s what I am doing:
    • Dollar cost averaging here into 7 coins: Bitcoin, Polkadot, Cosmos, Polygon, Algorand, Chainlink, and Avalanche
    • Very small amounts this round and will eventually narrow these down to 4 long term holds
  • Solana is unlikely to recover from the FTX fallout
  • Too many Layer 1 coins are testing support levels
    • So a break down is immanent
  • Large Cap Layer 1 coins will eventually lose momentum
    • Targets are set in the charts below

Bitcoin / $BTC

  • We saw multiple attempts on the lower-time-frame for Bitcoin to break out of resistance in the pennant but couldn’t.
    • This is bearish
  • Crypto lender Genesis is having a hard time raising funds to stay solvent. If they go bankrupt within the next few days (which is probable), we are likely to see a breakdown of this pennant to my $14k target. Perfect timing.

Polkadot / $DOT

  • With Bitcoin capitulation coming up, I am expecting another 25% drop in DOT to the next level of support between $3.90 and $4.20
  • I’m far more optimistic about 2023 rallies, especially with Polkadot hinting that the SEC cannot (and probably will not) classify their coin as a security.
    • Cannot say the same about Ethereum
  • Price action hasn’t been following any particular patterns
    • It’s been a slow crawl down
    • Low volume price action moving with the larger market (but favoring downside)

Polygon / $MATIC

  • Playing off my thesis that Genesis goes insolvent and there’s another capitulation:
    • MATIC is having trouble breaking out of resistance
    • The more price continues to test support at $0.776, the more likely price will break down below this level
    • My target for more accumulation remains at the 50 to 60-cent range

Algorand / $ALGO

  • ALGO may capitulate quicker than most other coins
    • Too many tests of support on the bear flag
    • Price is favoring a leg down early
  • Possibility that the market is de-risking less popular coins like Algorand before selling off large-cap coins and tokens
  • Next level of support is at 18 cents
The Rebel Economist
Author: The Rebel Economist

Civil Engineer // Aviator // Photographer // Avid Coffee Enthusiast // Your investment strategies could differ from mine based on your risk tolerances, research, and time horizon, so I encourage you to do your own research as information provided by The Rebel Economist or Breaking Metrics should never be considered financial advice.

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