Weak Price Action Everywhere
- Polkadot continues to trade down a falling wedge
- Cosmos price moves into a bear flag
- Algorand completing a bear flag
- Polygon trades at confluence
- FOMC is in a couple weeks – any surprises here will send equities and crypto lower
- I’m remaining patient and cautious at these price levels. If another crypto exchange or lender goes insolvent, we could see 40-50% drops on altcoins and 20-30% drops on Bitcoin and Ethereum – these are my guesses based on previous insolvencies
Bitcoin / $BTC
- Mixed Technical Signals
- This is either an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern and we go higher from here
- Or this is a larger bear flag and we’re going lower
- So far, the de-leveraging phase of this bear market has claimed:
- 3 Arrows Capital
- Celsius
- Voyager
- FTX
- I am still hedging my bets on Genesis going under next – if it does, I’m anticipating capitulation down to 13-14k range
- Despite last night’s pump in price, there is zero catalyst for crypto to move up here unless there’s some rescue plan for crypto lenders currently in trouble
Ethereum / $ETH
- Eth continues to snake through through the pennant
- Consistent bearish lower-highs
- At best, price could test $1500 and then bounce back down from resistance
- My target for a bottom this cycle remains between $600 and $800
Polkadot / $DOT
- Price action is moving into a standard bottom structure
- I am expecting one last dip to the $3 range if the rest of the market dips
- This move will complete the bottom structure and place DOT in oversold territory and prime for a rally or recovery next Spring.
Cosmos / $ATOM
- What looked like a “v-shaped” recovery in June morphed into a bear flag
- Price action is not looking strong enough to hold support
Algorand / $ALGO
- Algorand moved from a bear pennant to a bear flag
- Bear flag would play out in congruence with a market capitulation across other altcoins showing similar patterns
Polygon / $MATIC
- Matic price broke out of the red pennant but testing support in the larger blue pennant
- If my thesis plays out and there is another market capitulation, we can assume that price will break down from this larger blue pennant
- Target for a local bottom is moved to a range between $0.31 and $0.475