Weak Price Action Everywhere

  • Polkadot continues to trade down a falling wedge
  • Cosmos price moves into a bear flag
  • Algorand completing a bear flag
  • Polygon trades at confluence
  • FOMC is in a couple weeks – any surprises here will send equities and crypto lower
  • I’m remaining patient and cautious at these price levels. If another crypto exchange or lender goes insolvent, we could see 40-50% drops on altcoins and 20-30% drops on Bitcoin and Ethereum – these are my guesses based on previous insolvencies

Bitcoin / $BTC

  • Mixed Technical Signals
    • This is either an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern and we go higher from here
    • Or this is a larger bear flag and we’re going lower
  • So far, the de-leveraging phase of this bear market has claimed:
    • 3 Arrows Capital
    • Celsius
    • Voyager
    • FTX
  • I am still hedging my bets on Genesis going under next – if it does, I’m anticipating capitulation down to 13-14k range
  • Despite last night’s pump in price, there is zero catalyst for crypto to move up here unless there’s some rescue plan for crypto lenders currently in trouble

Ethereum / $ETH

  • Eth continues to snake through through the pennant
    • Consistent bearish lower-highs
  • At best, price could test $1500 and then bounce back down from resistance
  • My target for a bottom this cycle remains between $600 and $800

Polkadot / $DOT

  • Price action is moving into a standard bottom structure
  • I am expecting one last dip to the $3 range if the rest of the market dips
    • This move will complete the bottom structure and place DOT in oversold territory and prime for a rally or recovery next Spring.

Cosmos / $ATOM

  • What looked like a “v-shaped” recovery in June morphed into a bear flag
  • Price action is not looking strong enough to hold support

Algorand / $ALGO

  • Algorand moved from a bear pennant to a bear flag
  • Bear flag would play out in congruence with a market capitulation across other altcoins showing similar patterns

Polygon / $MATIC

  • Matic price broke out of the red pennant but testing support in the larger blue pennant
  • If my thesis plays out and there is another market capitulation, we can assume that price will break down from this larger blue pennant
  • Target for a local bottom is moved to a range between $0.31 and $0.475

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