Markets in Motion: Fed Minutes, Jobs Data, and Geopolitics Set the Stage for 2025

As we enter the first full trading week of 2025, several key events and data releases are poised to influence market movements. Here’s what to watch:

Key Earnings Reports This Week

• Monday, January 6:
  • Commercial Metals Company (CMC): Investors will look for insights into the company’s performance in the steel and metal fabrication industry, with an expected EPS of $0.82 and revenue of $1.86 billion. Finlogix
• Tuesday, January 7:
  • AAR Corp. (AIR): Analysts anticipate updates on the aviation services provider’s quarterly performance, with an expected EPS of $0.88 and revenue of $654.18 million. Finlogix
  • AZZ Inc. (AZZ): Focus will be on the company’s metal coatings and electrical platform solutions, with an expected EPS of $1.25 and revenue of $394.45 million. Finlogix
• Wednesday, January 8:
  • Acuity Brands (AYI): Earnings will provide insights into the lighting and building management firm’s market position, with an expected EPS of $3.89 and revenue of $957.65 million. Finlogix
  • Greenbrier Companies (GBX): Investors will assess the railcar manufacturer’s performance amid industry demand, with an expected EPS of $0.95 and revenue of $835.4 million. Finlogix
• Thursday, January 9:
  • KB Home (KBH): The homebuilder’s results may shed light on housing market conditions, with an expected EPS of $2.47 and revenue of $1.99 billion. Finlogix
• Friday, January 10:
  • Delta Air Lines (DAL): Earnings will provide indications of travel demand and fuel costs, with an expected EPS of $1.75 and revenue of $14.13 billion. Finlogix
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA): Focus will be on retail pharmacy sales and healthcare services, with an expected EPS of $0.39 and revenue of $37.35 billion. Finlogix

Upcoming Economic Data Releases and Potential Market Impacts

• Monday, January 6:
  • Factory Orders (November): Provides data on new orders for manufactured goods, indicating industrial demand.
• Tuesday, January 7:
  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (November): Offers insights into labor market dynamics, including job openings and turnover rates.
• Wednesday, January 8:
  • Consumer Credit (November): Measures changes in the total value of outstanding consumer credit, indicating consumer spending and confidence.
• Friday, January 10:
  • Employment Situation Report (December): Includes non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, serving as a comprehensive indicator of labor market health.

Cryptocurrency Market Update

• Bitcoin (BTC): After recently surpassing the $100,000 milestone, Bitcoin is currently trading around $98,404. The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with investors closely monitoring regulatory developments and market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

S&P 500 (SPY):

• Support Levels: The S&P 500 finds strong support around $585, with additional key support at $575, levels observed from previous consolidation zones.
• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance lies at $595. A breakout above this could push the index to test new highs around $605.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The current RSI for the S&P 500 is hovering around 60, indicating the market is in neutral territory with room for upward movement before reaching overbought levels.
• Sentiment: The broader market sentiment for the S&P 500 remains cautiously optimistic, reflecting investor expectations of continued economic recovery and corporate earnings growth.

Bitcoin (BTC):

• Support Levels: Bitcoin has immediate support at $95,000, with stronger buying interest observed near $90,000 in case of a pullback.
• Resistance Levels: BTC faces psychological resistance at $100,000. A decisive break above this level could open the door for $105,000 and beyond.
• RSI: Bitcoin’s RSI stands at 68, approaching overbought territory. This signals the possibility of a short-term correction but aligns with the strong bullish momentum seen recently.
• Sentiment: Crypto market sentiment remains bullish, fueled by increasing institutional interest and investor optimism.

Top News and Topics Influencing Markets This Week

• Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
  • “FOMC releases tentative meeting schedule for 2025, 2026”
    Source: ABA Banking Journal
    Summary: The Federal Open Market Committee has announced its tentative meeting schedule for 2025 and 2026, outlining eight scheduled meetings per year. ABA Banking Journal
  • “Here’s The Fed’s 2025 Meeting Schedule And What To Expect For Interest Rates”
    Source: Forbes
    Summary: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in 2025, perhaps two or three times, with greater uncertainty for the second half of the year. Forbes
• December Employment Report
  • “December 2024 Jobs Report: November Labor Market Trends”
    Source: Actalent
    Summary: The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Actalent Services
  • “Employment report will show a rebound”
    Source: KPMG
    Summary: Payroll employment is expected to rise by 210,000 in November as workers return to work following disruptions due to storms and strikes. KPMG
• Geopolitical Developments
  • “2025 Geostrategic Outlook: How geopolitics is driving transformation”
    Source: EY
    Summary: The top 10 geopolitical developments executives must be aware of in 2025, highlighting how geopolitical developments will have direct impacts on different sectors. Ernst & Young
  • “The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook”
    Source: Confluence Investment Management
    Summary: An analysis of the geopolitical issues that will likely impact global markets in 2025. Confluence Investment

Biggest Stock Gainers from Last Week

• NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Shares rose significantly following CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote at CES, highlighting advancements