Turbulence Ahead: Tech Reports, Trade Wars, and a Pivotal Market Test

Investors weigh tariff battles, slowing growth, and pivotal Big Tech earnings as sentiment teeters between fear and opportunity.

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This Week’s Big Drivers

• Mega-cap earnings on deck:
  Tesla is set to report Q1 2025 earnings on Tuesday, April 22, 2025, after market close. Alphabet (Google) will release its earnings on Thursday, April 24, 2025, after market close . After last quarter’s margin compression warnings, markets are on edge about whether the AI boom can offset slowing consumer and enterprise spending.

• Federal Reserve enters blackout period:
  After a parade of hawkish Fed speakers, markets are left to interpret whether the central bank will hike again if inflation stays sticky. Futures now fully price in no cuts until at least September, a sharp pivot from just last month.
• Tariff wars escalate:
  • U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods expanded.
  • China retaliated with 125% tariffs on select American imports.
  • White House reportedly pressuring allies to restrict trade with Beijing, deepening global trade uncertainty.
  The tariff escalation is fueling fears of a stagflationary squeeze: slowing growth plus persistent inflation.
• Key economic data:
  • Q1 GDP (Thursday): Expected around 1.2% — significant slowdown from Q4’s 3.2%.
  • PCE Inflation (Friday): Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A surprise beat could spark a bond selloff and crush rate-cut hopes.

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Market Mood Analysis

(from Glideslope AI — https://www.glideslope.ai/marketmood/)

• Current Mood Index: -24 (Pessimistic Zone)
  • This reflects mounting anxiety — not full panic, but definitely risk-off.
  • News flow is overwhelmingly bearish: tariffs, trade wars, and economic slowdown warnings dominate headlines.
• Top trending bearish themes:
  • Tariffs → higher consumer prices
  • Trade tensions → supply chain disruption
  • Credit tightening → slower capex and hiring
• Pockets of bullishness:
  • Bitcoin whale accumulation is surging again.
  • Select earnings beats in India and emerging markets suggest global growth isn’t dead everywhere.
  • AI-related tech still sees strong institutional inflows, even as broader tech weakens.

Conclusion:
The market is pessimistic, but not capitulating yet — historically, this zone often precedes major trend shifts up or down.
If earnings disappoint and PCE inflation runs hot, expect sentiment to plunge closer to -50.

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Technical Analysis

• S&P 500:
  • Supertrend (daily) still bullish, but barely — any close below 4950 would flip it bearish.
  • RSI: 42 — nearing oversold territory but not quite there yet. Historically, 35–40 RSI has been a good “buy-the-dip” zone during bull markets.
  • MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed last week. Momentum favors sellers near term.
  • Key Levels:
    • Immediate support: 4950 (critical to hold)
    • Secondary support: 4850 (major volume shelf)
    • Resistance: 5100–5120
• NASDAQ 100 (NDX):
  • Supertrend turned bearish on Friday’s close.
  • RSI: 39 — nearing technical oversold.
  • MACD: Deepening bearish momentum — no sign of bullish divergence yet.

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD):
  • Supertrend bearish.
  • RSI: 36 — firmly oversold, historically a strong bounce zone.
  • MACD: Bearish but flattening — early signs of potential stabilization.
  • Key Levels:
    • Holding $60,000 is crucial.
    • Clearing $65,500 would break the recent downtrend and ignite a recovery rally.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield:
  • Supertrend bullish (higher yields = lower stock valuations).
  • RSI: 63 — nearing overbought.
  • Watch for a break above 4.75% — would pressure equities heavily.

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Top Stories to Follow This Week

Any new escalation could spike oil prices, hit consumer sentiment, and drive a “risk-off” move across global markets.

Big Tech Earnings — Can AI Revenues Deliver?

• Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and others report this week.
• Focus: Cloud growth, AI monetization, margins under cost pressures.

Q1 U.S. GDP — How Slow is the Slowdown?

• GDP growth expected around 1.2% annualized (vs 3.2% last quarter).
• A major miss could spark fresh recession fears and pressure stocks.

PCE Inflation — The Fed’s Red Line

• Core PCE due Friday.
• A hotter-than-expected print (>0.3% month-over-month) could kill rate cut hopes until late 2025.

Escalating Tariff War Between U.S. and China

• New tariffs announced by both sides last week.
• Investors watching for any signs of corporate pushback or supply chain disruptions hitting earnings.

Middle East Risk — Oil Prices and Market Shock Risk

• Although crude pulled back slightly, the situation remains unstable.
• Any new escalation could spike oil prices, hit consumer sentiment, and drive a “risk-off” move across global markets.

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Bottom Line

The market sits on a knife’s edge.

• Strong Big Tech earnings and softer PCE inflation could ignite a rebound.
• But weak reports or hotter inflation could accelerate the downside correction.

This is a trader’s market — fast moves, sharp reversals, and real opportunities for those staying alert.

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