TAKE NOTE:

  • December 13, 2022: November CPI data released
  • December 14, 2022: FOMC rates announcement
  • We have been seeing COVID-level volatility on monthly opens/closes on the S&P for the last year. These price swings are not normal.

S&P 500 / $SPY

  • RSI levels showed oversold and price action reflects what I’ve been observing for weeks: start of another downtrend
  • VIX (Volatility Index) also shows an incoming swing up – which usually means prices will go down
  • Next week will be particularly volatile for the markets after we get CPI and Fed rate announcements back-to-back

Personal Savings Rate

  • Personal Savings Rates are approaching the lowest levels since 2005
    • Any lower, and it’ll be the lowest savings rate ever recorded
  • This isn’t good considering that Consumer Debt is at an all-time high (see chart below)
    • In fact, consumer loans make up a larger market cap than the entirety of the crypto industry
  • Clearly consumers are spending their money and it’s going somewhere – but where exactly?
    • Here’s a hint: when was the last time you bought a product made in the USA?

Wages, Inflation, and Savings

  • Wage growth is down
  • Savings are down
  • Inflation is down – but only relative to its peak at around 9% – inflation is still 7.7%
    • Inflation rates still outpace wage growth and personal savings rates

Purchasing Power

  • After the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the US Federal Government has been keeping track of consumer purchasing power.
  • This is where we are today – a ~96% drop from ATH
  • The index hasn’t been able to make a higher-high since 1956

What does all this mean?

  • No gold standard, no bank reserves – there is literally nothing stopping banks and the Fed from continuing to devalue the dollar
  • Leverage, margin, loans, credit – all these concepts have repeatedly devalued the dollar because of the mismanagement of the money supply
  • Everything the Fed has done during COVID lockdowns has permanently damaged consumers and taxpayers – the charts above speak for themselves
  • If savings are at all-time lows, debt is at an all-time high, and wages are dipping / can’t keep up with inflation – then where is all the money?
  • A crash is imminent
The Rebel Economist
Author: The Rebel Economist

Civil Engineer // Aviator // Photographer // Avid Coffee Enthusiast // Your investment strategies could differ from mine based on your risk tolerances, research, and time horizon, so I encourage you to do your own research as information provided by The Rebel Economist or Breaking Metrics should never be considered financial advice.

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