Bulls Blink First: Market Momentum Meets Macro Worries

Tech leads the rebound, but inflation fears, trade uncertainty, and global tensions keep investors on edge.

Market Overview

The past week marked a modest rebound for major U.S. stock indices, breaking a four-week losing streak. The S&P 500 edged up by 0.08% to close at 5,667.56, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 0.08% to finish at 41,985.35, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.52% to end at 17,784.05. These gains were primarily driven by a resurgence in technology stocks, with notable performances from industry leaders such as Apple and Microsoft.

Upcoming Notable Earnings Reports

Investors will be closely monitoring the following key earnings releases scheduled for this week:

• Monday, March 24:
  • Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR): Aerospace company specializing in lunar technologies.​
• Tuesday, March 25:
  • GameStop Corp. (GME): Video game retailer with a significant online presence.​
• Wednesday, March 26:
  • Chewy, Inc. (CHWY): E-commerce platform for pet products.​
  • Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR): Discount variety store chain.
• Thursday, March 27:
  • Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU): Athletic apparel retailer.​

These reports will provide insights into consumer spending trends and corporate performance across various sectors.

Upcoming Economic Reports and Events

The week ahead features several significant economic data releases:

• Monday, March 24:
  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March): An indicator of manufacturing sector health.​
  • Federal Reserve Speeches: Insights into monetary policy and economic outlook.​
• Tuesday, March 25:
  • S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January): Measures changes in the value of residential real estate.​
  • Consumer Confidence Index (March): Assesses consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions.​
  • New Home Sales (February): Indicates the health of the housing market.​
• Wednesday, March 26:
  • Durable Goods Orders (February): Reflects new orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.​
• Thursday, March 27:
  • Gross Domestic Product (Q4, Second Revision): Provides an updated estimate of economic growth.​
  • Initial Jobless Claims: Tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits.​
• Friday, March 28:
  • Personal Income and Spending (February): Offers insights into consumer financial health.​
  • PCE Price Index (February): A key inflation measure monitored by the Federal Reserve.​
  • Consumer Sentiment Index (March, Final): Evaluates consumer attitudes and expectations.

These releases will shed light on various aspects of the economy, including inflation trends, consumer behavior, and overall economic growth.

Political News Impacting Markets

Several political developments are poised to influence market dynamics:

1. U.S. Tariff Policies: Reports suggest that President Donald Trump may narrow his broad tariff approach to focus on countries with significant trade surpluses with the U.S., including many in Asia. This has implications for global trade relations and market sentiment. ​AP News
2. U.S.-China Relations: Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for dialogue and cooperation with the U.S. during a meeting with business leaders and U.S. Senator Steve Daines. This development could impact trade negotiations and economic ties between the two nations. ​AP News
3. Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to slow the pace of shrinking its balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening, has implications for liquidity and could benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies. ​MarketWatch

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic heading into the final week of March. While uncertainties surrounding inflation, trade policies, and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on market participants—as reflected in the latest AAII survey, which still shows elevated bearish sentiment—underlying signals point to a shift in tone.

According to Glideslope AI’s sentiment index, the overall market sentiment score stands at 12 (optimistic). This reading is supported by a combined 58% contribution from bullish (35%) and optimistic (23%) sentiment, while bearish (28%) and pessimistic (14%) tones continue to linger. The balance suggests a market that’s regaining confidence, though not without caution.

Several factors explain this divergence in sentiment:

• Technology leadership has helped lift major indices, with the Nasdaq outperforming thanks to strong performances from Apple, Microsoft, and semiconductor names. This aligns with bullish sentiment concentrated in tech-heavy sources like Cointelegraph and MarketWatch Tech.
• Fed policy clarity is also lifting spirits. Last week’s FOMC meeting reinforced the Fed’s dovish tilt, with policymakers still projecting three rate cuts in 2025. This has boosted optimism in risk assets, particularly in crypto and growth stocks, even as inflation data remains mixed.
• Geopolitical tension—particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East—has tempered enthusiasm. Sources like the Economist and Reuters continue to reflect a bearish-to-pessimistic tone on global macro risks, which explains why 42% of the sentiment analysis still leans cautious.
• Trade policy uncertainty also lingers, with AP News reporting that the Trump administration is considering narrower but targeted tariffs if reelected. This stirs unease across sectors like industrials and transport, reflected in the sharp decline of the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

In short, sentiment has turned a corner from neutral to moderately positive, but the market remains highly reactive to policy shifts, inflation trends, and international developments. It’s a fragile optimism—hopeful, yet wary.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 closed at 5,667.56, marking a 0.08% increase. The index has been trading within a range, with resistance around 5,750 and support near 5,600. A decisive move above or below these levels could signal the next directional trend. Investors should monitor these key levels and consider risk management strategies accordingly.​CNN+4Bloomberg+4MarketWatch+4

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at approximately $87,426.23, reflecting a 3.65% increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has shown resilience after dipping below $80,000 earlier this month. Analysts suggest that a weekly close above $85,000 is critical to maintain upward momentum and avoid a potential correction toward $76,000. Key resistance levels to watch are $90,000 and $95,000, while support lies at $85,000 and $80,000.​

Crypto Market Update

The broader cryptocurrency market has mirrored Bitcoin’s recent gains. Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,069.05, up 3.3%, while other altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) have posted gains of 6.2% and 2%, respectively. Market participants remain attentive to regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors that could influence the crypto landscape.​

Other Notable News

• Transportation Sector Performance: The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) has experienced a significant decline, falling over 17% from its November peak. This downturn is attributed to investor concerns about a potential economic slowdown, exacerbated by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies. Major transportation companies, including FedEx and United Parcel Service (UPS), have seen substantial stock declines, reflecting broader economic apprehensions.
• FedEx Earnings Report: FedEx reported a 10.9% drop in shares after cutting its annual financial forecasts, citing global economic challenges and increased operational costs. This announcement has raised concerns about the health of the logistics and transportation sectors. ​

Wall St Week Ahead Dow Transports index slump poses trouble spot as investors seek stocks stability

• Dow transports index down over 17% from November high
• Struggles as investors worry about growth slowdown
• Reports next week on consumer sentiment, inflation

Dow, S&P end flat, Nasdaq snaps four-week decline on tariff hopes

• Nike dips on bleak revenue outlook
• FedEx tumbles after results, outlook
• Boeing jumps after fighter jet contract award
• Indexes up: Dow 0.08%, S&P 0.08%, Nasdaq 0.52%

Wrap Up

• As we enter the week of March 24, 2025, markets are navigating a complex landscape marked by modest rebounds in major indices, significant earnings reports, and critical economic data releases. Political developments, particularly concerning U.S. tariff policies and international relations, continue to influence market sentiment. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, considering both technical indicators and fundamental analyses, to make informed decisions in this dynamic environment.​

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