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Earnings, Crypto Signals, and Trump’s Lead Fuel Market Buzz

As we kick off the final week of October, markets are riding a wave of suspense and anticipation. High-profile earnings reports from tech giants and financial leaders are on the horizon, set to fuel market momentum if they exceed expectations. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s technical setup is drawing bullish attention as it edges toward a breakout. Adding to the excitement, the U.S. presidential race is heating up, with Trump currently leading in the polls—a scenario that could send stocks surging if his pro-business stance re-enters the Oval Office.

Last Week’s Market Recap

Last week, the S&P 500 rose by 0.6%, with the Nasdaq climbing 0.4% as positive earnings and stable economic data buoyed sentiment. The CPI data released earlier this month suggested moderating inflation, which initially concerned investors over Fed policy but ultimately reassured markets as earnings beat expectations. The energy sector gained on rising oil prices amid continued Middle East tensions, while consumer discretionary sectors showed mixed performance under inflationary pressure.

Key Earnings Reports This Week

Earnings season is in full swing, with major companies reporting this week, including:

  • Alphabet (GOOGL): Reporting on Tuesday, October 29, Alphabet’s results will reflect ad spending trends, particularly in tech, and provide insight into consumer demand as holiday season spending ramps up.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Also reporting on Tuesday, Microsoft’s earnings will highlight corporate spending on cloud services and the overall tech spending environment.
  • Visa (V): Reporting on Wednesday, October 30, Visa’s earnings will shed light on consumer spending and trends in digital payments, reflecting the broader consumer spending environment.

Additional reports from Pfizer and Caterpillar are expected on Wednesday, providing further insights into healthcare and industrial sectors navigating inflation and supply chain pressures.

Economic Data

Tuesday, October 29:

  • S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (September) will provide insights into housing market trends, which have been under pressure from rising mortgage rates.
  • The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (October) will reflect consumer sentiment as we approach the holiday season, giving clues about potential spending behavior.
  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (September) will offer a view of labor market tightness, which is closely watched by the Fed as it gauges employment trends.

Wednesday, October 30:

  • ADP National Employment Report (October) and Gross Domestic Product (Q3 Advance Estimate) will be released. The GDP report is particularly significant, as it will show Q3 economic growth, which influences Fed policy.
  • Pending Home Sales (September) will add further data on the housing market, which has shown signs of cooling under higher rates.

Thursday, October 31:

  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and Core PCE (September) will be released. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, and any surprises here could impact their stance on future rate adjustments.
  • Employment Cost Index (Q3) and Chicago PMI (October) will also be released, adding depth to the labor cost and manufacturing outlook.

Friday, November 1:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls Report (October) and S&P Final Manufacturing PMI (October) will conclude the week. The jobs report will give crucial insights into employment trends, particularly as the Fed looks for signs of a cooling labor market.

In-Depth Crypto Market Analysis

In the crypto space, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading near $63,000, testing key resistance levels that could pave the way for further gains if broken. Technical indicators are flashing bullish signals across multiple moving averages, with strong support around $60,500. Institutional interest has bolstered Bitcoin recently, as inflation shows signs of moderating, enticing more investors into speculative assets like crypto.

Ethereum (ETH) has similarly shown resilience, hovering near $1,800 with an eye toward breaking the $2,000 level. However, Ethereum faces more resistance than Bitcoin, driven in part by economic uncertainty and slightly lower demand for DeFi projects on its network.

Macroeconomic trends are heavily influencing the crypto market as inflation data and Fed policy shifts drive investor sentiment. With signs of moderating inflation, risk appetite could increase, drawing capital into Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, crypto markets remain sensitive to any hawkish Fed signals, as high interest rates often temper growth in speculative assets. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum will likely respond dynamically to the week’s earnings and economic data, closely mirroring investor sentiment across broader markets.

Potential Trump Presidency and Market Upside

With Trump currently leading in the polls, investors are weighing the impact of a potential second Trump term on the markets. Trump’s previous pro-business policies, which included corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and a focus on energy independence, were favorable to sectors like energy, financials, and industrials. A Trump administration could reinstate these policies, creating a more business-friendly environment that would likely boost sectors benefiting from reduced regulation and lower taxes. Consumer and small business sectors could also experience a surge in spending power from potential tax cuts, lifting market sentiment and supporting asset prices across the board.

The dual anticipation of election outcomes and earnings season has created a unique layer of excitement in the market. Investors are balancing current economic pressures with the potential upside a Trump-led economic agenda could bring, particularly in deregulated, growth-oriented industries.

In the News

Donald Trump on Joe Rogan’s Podcast
President Donald Trump appeared on The Joe Rogan Experience on October 25, just days before the election. This high-profile interview drew in over 26 million views within the first 19 hours alone. The interview has been lauded for its unscripted nature and lengthy format, allowing Trump to delve deeper into his campaign strategies and policy ideas. Rogan was impressed with Trump’s unwavering energy throughout the marathon session, even skipping breaks
WATCH: Youtube

Microsoft and Alphabet Earnings Expected This Week
Tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet will release their earnings this week, providing a glimpse into the health of the technology sector amidst challenging economic conditions. Analysts are particularly interested in cloud growth and ad spending metrics from these two industry leaders.
Read more at Washington Examiner

Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil prices have climbed toward $92 a barrel due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with investors closely watching for potential supply disruptions. This increase comes as energy markets remain highly sensitive to international developments.
Read more at Newsweek

Biden and Harris Respond to Trump Poll Surge
As Trump continues to lead in recent polls, the Biden-Harris campaign is re-strategizing to regain ground with key demographics. Both candidates have increased their visibility across podcasts and media appearances in an effort to mobilize voters ahead of November.
Read more at TweakTown

Wrap Up

This week’s market dynamics will be heavily influenced by earnings reports from major tech and consumer-facing companies, key economic data, and the trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum. With Trump’s potential return to office in focus, pro-business policies could add an extra boost to investor sentiment, particularly in sectors that stand to benefit. Investors should keep a close eye on tech earnings, consumer spending reports, and how they intersect with crypto’s upward momentum and political developments as we move into the final stretch of 2024.


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