Oil surges, Bitcoin slips, and the S&P stalls as Powell, PCE, and Middle East tensions take center stage.
📊 Market Update: Week of June 23, 2025
🔎 The Big Picture
- S&P 500 (via SPY): Near 594.3, down ~0.5% on the week—hovering ~2.9% below its February high
- Bitcoin: Sitting around $98.9K, off ~4.5% intraday after topping $103K amid recent Middle East tensions
- Oil: Brent crude has surged ~11% since June 10, climbing toward $80+ on Iran‑Israel conflict fears
- Market Sentiment: Global equities are on edge—not priced for escalation in the Middle East, rising inflation, and mixed earnings
🧠 Technical Analysis
S&P 500 (SPY / ES futures)
- RSI (14-day): ~41 – in neutral-to-oversold territory, indicating no overbought pressure
- MACD: Slightly negative (~–13.7 for SPX, –15 for micro‑E‑mini), signaling short-term bearish momentum
- Moving Averages: Price trading between 50 DMA–200 DMA (~5,736–5,816 on index; SPY shows 50/100/200‑day averages are bullish, while 5/10‑day are not)
- Volume & Patterns: Consolidation just below all‑time highs (~6,166 ES), tightening range suggests possible breakout—upside above resistance or breakdown toward 50‑day MA (~5,757)
Summary: Neutral‑to‑bearish short term, key signals pending breakout/breakdown — watch RSI bounce or MACD cross.
Bitcoin
- RSI: Ranging ~37–44 — slightly oversold to neutral
- MACD: Mixed – Investing.com shows negative MACD (~–230), while TipRanks lists a positive MACD (~142), indicating ambiguous momentum
- Moving Averages: Trading below 5‑ to 20‑day MAs ($105–106 k), but above 50/100/200‑day MAs ($95–104 k), positioning suggests short-term weakness within a longer-term bullish structure
- Stochastics/Williams %R: Overbought on short-term stochastics, signaling risk of deeper pullback
Summary: Slightly bearish short-term; watch recovery above 20‑day MA and MACD crossover for momentum shift.
🌡️ Market Mood (via Glideslope.ai)
- Mood Index: –10 → Pessimistic
- Sentiment Breakdown:
- Bearish: 36%
- Pessimistic: 20%
- Optimistic: 17%
- Bullish: 27%
Key themes: Trump, Iran, Israel, prices, conflict, trade, tariffs
“Shipping threats around the Arabian Peninsula,” “Terror alerts,” and “Iran strike fallout” dominate the bear case. The bull case is thin, supported only by oil resilience and military success headlines.
Sentiment is risk-averse, with equities on edge and crypto shedding gains. Volatility could surge on any escalation or hawkish surprise.
🚨 Top Story: Middle East Hostility
- U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites on June 21, labeled a “spectacular success” by President Trump
- Oil prices spiked 11%, triggering investor flight to safe havens (dollar, Treasuries)
- Markets paused as they reopened Sunday night, eyeing retaliation risk and supply-chain shocks
From Glideslope’s Pulse AI:
Investors should look out for the following headlines in the coming week:
1. **Further Developments in U.S. and Iran Relations** After recent U.S. strikes on Iran and the Iranian missile strikes on Israel, the geopolitical tensions in the region remain a critical area to watch. Any escalation or de-escalation could significantly impact global markets, especially in oil, defense, and cybersecurity sectors. Read more
2. **Energy Prices** With the recent surge in electricity prices for U.S. households, investors should monitor any news related to energy costs. Factors affecting these might include policy changes, supply disruptions, or changes in consumer demand. Read more
3. **Performance and Projections of Biotech Stocks** Notable coverage was given to certain biotech stocks predicted to see significant growth. Updates or any news regarding clinical trials, FDA approvals, or earnings reports from these companies could be crucial. Read more
4. **Developments in Solar Energy Sector** Given the recent downturn in solar stocks, any positive or negative industry news could sway investor sentiment significantly. Look for updates on regulatory changes, technological advancements, or shifts in investment flows. Read more
5. **Corporate News and Strategic Deals** Statements or developments related to Trump’s teased ‘historic’ deal with Harvard could be influential, particularly if they indicate broader economic or educational trends. Read more
🏛 Fed & Inflation
- Chair Powell testifies this week before the House (Tuesday) and Senate (Wednesday), fielding questions on interest-rate outlook amid tariff concerns
- May PCE Report (Friday): the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge could reignite rate-cut optimism—or reassert tightening bias
🏭 Earnings to Watch
- Monday: KB Home (KBH) kicks off the week with May home-sales numbers
- Tuesday: FedEx (FDX) earnings reveal global trade momentum; plus U. of Michigan sentiment, consumer confidence are due
- Wednesday: Micron (MU) reports, a barometer for AI-driven memory demand
- Thursday: Nike (NKE), Walgreens (WBA), and McCormick (MKC) round out the core earnings, revealing consumer strength, tariff impact
- Friday: May PCE/core PCE and June Michigan sentiment—pivotal for Fed messaging
🌐 Geopolitical & Macro
- Middle East: Markets on edge over possible Iran retaliation, impacting oil, shipping, inflation risk
- Europe & NATO: Oil rally and NATO’s defense meet pressuring energy and defense stocks
- China/Euro-zone: Soft PMI data keeps global cycle worries alive
⚠️ Key Risk Triggers This Week
| Event | Potential Market Risk |
|---|---|
| Powell’s Testimony | Hawkish tone → equities drop, bond yields bump |
| PCE Print | Hot data → pressure on Fed; cold data → relief rally |
| Earnings Surprises | FDX/MU headline beats or misses reshape sector bias |
| Geopolitics | New Iran targets → oil spike, risk-off broadening |
🧭 Strategy & Positioning
- Equities: Defensive stance; tech choppy and energy/defense showing relative strength.
- Fixed Income: Bonds and Treasuries catching safe-haven flows but wary of inflation breakout.
- Commodities: Oil ready for volatility—$80+ becomes critical resistance; gold and USD benefit.
✅ Summary
This week hinges on two high-stakes pillars:
- Geopolitical risk – sudden escalation could disrupt oil, markets.
- Policy clarity – Powell and PCE will shape the path for interest rates.
Position smart: lean defensive, vet earnings carefully—and buckle in for headline swings.
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