Stocks at record highs, Bitcoin soars, oil tumbles, but sentiment turns pessimistic
📋 Market Summary
Last week, markets pushed to new highs despite rising geopolitical tension and a sharp drop in oil prices. The S&P 500 closed at 6,173, driven by continued strength in AI and big tech. Bitcoin surged past $108K after Donald Trump voiced support for crypto, framing it as a counterbalance to dollar pressure. Meanwhile, oil tumbled over 12% as ceasefire talks between Iran and Israel eased supply concerns. Despite the strong price action, Glideslope’s Market Mood Index turned pessimistic (-8)—with bearish headlines outweighing bullish ones, highlighting a growing disconnect between narrative and price.
📉 Market Mood: –8 (Pessimistic)
Despite fresh record highs in the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, sentiment across major news sources has turned negative. Bearish and pessimistic narratives dominate, with rising geopolitical risks, inflation-driven consumer strain, and trade tensions clouding the outlook.
- Bearish: 39%
- Pessimistic: 16%
- Optimistic: 11%
- Bullish: 34%
- Top Trending Topics: Trump, Iran, Nuclear, Israel, Prices, Strikes, Oil, Trade, AI
📊 Last Week’s Performance (as of June 28)
| Asset | Last Price | Weekly Move |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,173 | 🔼 +1.9% |
| SPY ETF | $614.91 | 🔼 +2.1% |
| Bitcoin | $108,164 | 🔼 +5.8% |
| WTI Crude | $65–66/barrel | 🔻 –12% (weekly) |
| Gold | ~$2,310 | 🔽 –1.5% |
- S&P 500: Closed at new all-time highs. AI and rate-cut optimism continue to power large-cap tech.
- Bitcoin: Surged above $108K, buoyed by macro fears and a surprising endorsement from Trump.
- Oil: Posted its worst week since early 2023 as ceasefire hopes in the Middle East collapsed the war premium.
📅 Key Events This Week
| Date | Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| July 1 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Recession signal if <50 |
| July 2 | Eurozone CPI | ECB reaction watch |
| July 3 | FOMC Minutes + JOLTS | Rate-cut signals & labor demand |
| July 4 | 🇺🇸 U.S. Markets Closed | Independence Day |
| July 5 | Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | Pivotal for Q3 Fed policy direction |
⚠️ Watch for: If NFP lands below 150K or unemployment ticks up, rate cut odds will spike—and markets could rip. But a strong print risks a selloff.
🌍 Global Narrative
- Trade Tensions: Trump is reportedly pulling back from Canada trade talks. Tariff fears are creeping back into the market.
- Middle East: Iran-Israel tensions de-escalated for now, but oil volatility persists.
- Crypto Regulation: Binance’s influence in Kenya is raising global monopoly concerns.
- Consumer Squeeze: Tariffs are now showing up in everyday costs—weddings, groceries, and fuel prices.
📈 Technical Analysis – S&P 500
- Current Level: 6,173 (record high)
- Resistance: 6,200–6,220
- Support: 6,100
- RSI: Elevated – signs of overextension, but momentum remains strong.
Expect lighter volumes and exaggerated moves this week due to the July 4th holiday. A break above 6,220 could extend the rally—but be wary of false breakouts.
₿ Bitcoin Breakdown
- Current Price: $108,164
- Support: $104,500
- Resistance: $110,000
- Narrative: Trump’s pro-Bitcoin comments + global currency risk = bullish breakout. ETF inflows remain steady.
🧠 Bottom Line
Markets look strong on the surface—new highs, booming Bitcoin, falling energy prices—but sentiment is flashing pessimism. The disconnect is real. Investors are chasing momentum while the narrative shifts toward risk and uncertainty.
This week will be a volatility trap. With thin liquidity and critical macro data ahead, don’t confuse momentum for clarity.
💡 Trade Ideas
- Momentum Ride: Big tech, AI, and semiconductors into earnings season
- Hedge: Consider puts or cash hedges if NFP comes in hot
- Opportunistic Buy Zones: Energy stocks could bounce after oil’s plunge
Stay alert. The mood is shifting even if the chart isn’t.
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