New Highs, Old Fears: Markets Rally Into a Week of Big Decisions

With the S&P 500 near record levels and Bitcoin holding above $100K, investors brace for key tariff decisions, Fed minutes, and early earnings signals.

📈 Market Summary (Week ending July 4, 2025)

• S&P 500 (SPY) finished the week at $625.34, up slightly but stalling just under its all-time high.
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) traded around $108,850, pausing after a multi-week breakout.
• Jobs data beat expectations, with +147K jobs added, easing recession fears temporarily.
• However, rising yields and upcoming policy uncertainty (tariffs, rate guidance) capped gains.
• Volume remained light heading into the holiday, but expect that to change fast this week.

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📰 Major News Headlines

• July 9 “Liberation Day” deadline looms: Trump’s 90-day pause on new tariffs ends this week. The market expects clarity on import duties, especially on Chinese tech and Mexican goods. Watch for “big beautiful” rhetoric to heat up.
• Federal spending bills re-enter the spotlight as Congress returns. The fight over deficit limits and tax offsets is expected to ramp up this week — adding pressure on rates and the dollar.
• Treasury yields climb again, as short-duration bonds absorb growing issuance. Rate cut bets are now pushed to September or later.
• Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft still lead, but fund flows suggest AI euphoria is rotating into infrastructure and defense.
• India’s IPO pipeline surges, with $2.4B in deals — a sign that global risk appetite remains selective, not broad-based.

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💼 Upcoming Earnings Reports

• Tuesday 7/9:
  • Delta Air Lines (DAL): First major airline report of the quarter. Watch forward bookings, fuel cost commentary, and whether 2025 is shaping up to be a “lost year” for travel demand.
• Wednesday 7/10:
  • Levi Strauss (LEVI): A direct consumer pulse check. Will stubborn inflation crush back-to-school forecasts?
  • AZZ Inc. (AZZ): Infrastructure and fabrication — a quiet barometer for industrial health.
• Thursday 7/11:
  • Penguin Solutions (PENG): Niche AI and data center play. A dark horse for upside surprise.

Want to follow these live? Add them to your watchlist on Fraywire.com.

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🧾 Upcoming Economic Data

• Tuesday 7/9: ⚠️ Tariff announcement expected. Markets could swing violently depending on whether the Trump administration reinstates import levies.
• Wednesday 7/10 (2:00 PM ET): FOMC minutes release — traders looking for clues on whether the Fed is ready to cut in Q3.
• Thursday 7/11:
  • Initial Jobless Claims — still near historic lows, but any spike would shift the Fed’s tone.
• Global: Watch for China CPI and UK GDP reports, both due midweek. These will shape global inflation sentiment.

Track all releases live on Glideslope.ai and see their impact on sentiment scores in real-time.

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📐 S&P 500 Technicals – SPY

• Last Close: $625.34
• Trend: Consolidation at highs
• Resistance: $630 (all-time high), then $635
• Support: $610 (20-day MA), then $595

With market sentiment slipping into pessimistic territory, the index risks a pullback if tariff news or FOMC language spooks bulls. Watch for heavy selling volume if we break below $610.

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₿ Bitcoin Technicals – BTCUSD

• Last Price: $108,850
• Resistance: $110,500 → $112,000
• Support: $106,000 → $103,500

Bitcoin is coiling. If tariffs reignite inflation fears or tech stocks falter, BTC could either benefit as a hedge or fall if liquidity dries up. A break above $112K is a clear signal of risk-on appetite returning.

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🧭 Market Mood

Market Mood Index: –13
Sentiment: ⚠️ Pessimistic

• Bearish: 39%
• Pessimistic: 19%
• Optimistic: 12%
• Bullish: 30%
  Trending Topics: trump, bill, trade, tax, big beautiful, federal, ai, prices

This week’s mood reflects anxiety about looming tariff announcements, federal spending debates, and growing skepticism around the longevity of the AI rally. You can track mood swings and trending themes live at Glideslope.ai.

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📌 Wrap-Up

This week is a crossroads. The market is:

• Overbought technically (SPY near ATH),
• Nervous fundamentally (tariffs, Fed timing, fiscal fights),
• And fading sentiment-wise (–13 mood score).

Watch for volatility midweek:

• If Trump reinstates tariffs, expect a risk-off reaction (tech down, yields up, dollar stronger).
• If the Fed minutes signal caution, it might support equities — but only temporarily.

📌 Actionable takeaway:

• Consider trimming risk-on trades until tariff clarity emerges.
• Focus on infrastructure, defense, and energy — all gaining attention as safe havens.
• Stay updated via Fraywire’s earnings feed and the Sentiment Dashboard on Glideslope.ai.

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