The S&P 500 & Bitcoin Soar: Will It Last?

Earnings season heats up as trade tensions persist and Bitcoin hits new records.

In this edition, we dive into:

• Trade Tensions Escalating: How renewed tariff threats are shaking global markets and what it means for your portfolio.
• Q2 Earnings Kick-off: Key financial sector reports that could set the tone for the coming weeks.
• Inflation Watch: The critical CPI data release and its implications for interest rates and consumer spending.
• S&P 500 & Bitcoin: Technical Take*: Expert analysis on what the charts are saying for two of the market’s hottest assets.
• Beyond the Headlines*: Decoding the major news impacting your investments this week.

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Market Summary: The Week That Was (July 14-18)

Last week saw US equities continue their gradual ascent, with both the S&P 500 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite reaching fresh all-time highs. The S&P 500 closed up around 0.6% for the week, while the Nasdaq gained a robust 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained essentially unchanged.

Despite persistent headlines about escalating trade tensions and new tariff threats (particularly President Trump’s focus on reciprocal tariffs and specific metals like copper), markets largely brushed off these concerns, buoyed by generally strong corporate earnings results and better-than-expected economic data. Financial companies, in particular, delivered upside surprises in their Q2 earnings.

Inflation data for June came in mixed, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing an acceleration, as anticipated by some due to tariff-related price rises. However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation was lower than expected, suggesting that cost pressures on businesses remained contained for now. Consumers showed spending in autos, apparel, and food services, though home furnishings and appliances saw declines.

Bitcoin continued its impressive run, surging to new record highs above $123,000 before a slight pullback, primarily driven by positive U.S. pro-crypto legislation momentum and accelerated institutional adoption.

Upcoming Notable Earnings (July 21-25)

The Q2 earnings season moves into full swing this week, with a heavy focus on major technology and telecom companies. Investor attention will be keenly fixed on forward guidance, especially concerning the potential impacts of trade policies.

Monday, July 21:

• Verizon (VZ)
• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

Tuesday, July 22:

• Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG)
• Tesla (TSLA)
• IBM (IBM)
• Intel (INTC)
• Raytheon Technologies (RTX)
• Texas Instruments (TXN)
• Lockheed Martin (LMT)

Wednesday, July 23:

• Coca-Cola (KO)
• Philip Morris International (PM)
• ServiceNow (NOW)

Thursday, July 24:

• T-Mobile (TMUS)
• AT&T (T)
• Blackstone (BX)

Upcoming Important Economic Data (July 21-25)

This week’s economic calendar will provide further insights into the global economic health, particularly with updated manufacturing and services activity.

Monday, July 21:

• US: Conference Board Leading Economic Index (June)
• China: Loan Prime Rate (1Y, 5Y)

Tuesday, July 22:

• US: Fed Chair Powell Speech
• Australia: RBA Meeting Minutes

Wednesday, July 23:

• US: Existing Home Sales (June)
• Euro Area: Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

Thursday, July 24:

• Global: Flash S&P Global PMIs (Manufacturing & Services) for US, Eurozone, Germany, France, UK, Japan, Australia, India (These are crucial for assessing current economic activity and inflation pressures globally).
• Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence (August)
• Euro Area: ECB Interest Rate Decision (No rate cut is anticipated, but market will scrutinize language for future guidance).
• US: New Home Sales (June)

Friday, July 25:

• UK: Retail Sales (June)
• Japan: Tokyo CPI (July)
• US: Durable Goods Orders (June)

Technical Analysis

S&P 500: The S&P 500’s uptrend remains intact, having continued its ascent last week to new all-time highs. The index shows strong breadth, with the Bullish Percent Index remaining above 50 and a healthy percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day simple moving average. While the range between the open and close has been relatively narrow, and some breadth indicators are flattening, there are no immediate signs of a massive sell-off. The overall technical picture suggests continued bullish momentum, with investors largely shrugging off tariff concerns. Key resistance levels are now in uncharted territory following the new highs, but any significant pullback would likely find support at previous resistance levels, now acting as support.

Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin has had a remarkable run, hitting an unprecedented all-time high of $123,000 before settling back to trade around the $118,000 support level. The surge was propelled by favorable U.S. regulatory developments, including strong support for the crypto industry from President Trump, and accelerating institutional adoption, evidenced by significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin remains in a strong bullish trend despite the recent short-term correction. The market sentiment, as per Coinmarketcap’s Fear & Greed Index, is in “greed” territory but not yet “extreme greed,” implying there’s still room for sentiment to grow sustainably. Support is currently holding near $118,000, with further downside finding a potential floor around $116,000 and $112,000. Upside targets could aim for $130,000 and potentially higher, with some analysts even forecasting $140,000-$200,000 by year-end depending on catalysts like anticipated US rate cuts. The overall outlook remains bullish.

Major News Headlines Impacting Markets This Week

The primary driver for market sentiment this week will continue to be trade policy and escalating tariff rhetoric. While markets have largely shrugged off recent announcements, the ongoing “trade war” narrative remains a significant source of uncertainty. Investors will be keenly watching for any new statements, negotiations, or concrete actions from governments, as these could quickly shift market mood.

Beyond trade, the Q2 earnings season will be a dominant factor. Strong corporate results, particularly from the tech and financial sectors, have provided a tailwind to equities. Any disappointments or cautious forward guidance, however, could lead to pullbacks.

Interact with this chart.

Finally, central bank commentary and global PMIs will be closely monitored. Speeches from Fed Chair Powell and the ECB’s interest rate decision, coupled with the release of flash PMI data for major economies, will offer critical insights into global growth trajectories and inflation pressures, potentially influencing monetary policy expectations.

From Pulse AI on Glideslope:

1. **London Stock Exchange Parent Exploring 24-Hour Trading Launch**: – This development could potentially increase trading volume and liquidity, which would benefit investors globally. The move to a 24-hour trading model suggests adaptability and might attract more international traders to the LSE. – Read more

2. **3 Cheap Tech Stocks to Buy Right Now**: – Given the often volatile nature of tech stocks, recommendations for affordable buys could guide investors looking to enter the tech market or diversify their portfolios without substantial initial investments. This could indicate a bullish sentiment towards selected tech stocks. – Read more

3. **Aug. 1 is ‘Hard Deadline’ for Trump’s Tariffs, Commerce Secretary Lutnick Says**: – This news could have a bearish effect as markets generally react negatively to uncertainty and potential trade restrictions. Investors might be wary of sectors likely to be affected by these tariffs and adjust their portfolios accordingly. – Read More

4. **Can Investing $25,000 in the S&P 500 Today and Holding On for 25 Years Make You Wealthy?**: – This perspective encourages long-term investment in a reputable index, which could strengthen confidence in steady, long-term growth strategies over speculative or short-term gains. – Read more

5. **Fintech Firm Clear Street Extends Lease at 4 WTC — and Adds an Entire Floor**: – This expansion suggests growth and stability in the fintech sector, which could be a positive indicator for investors interested in financial technology and infrastructure development. – Read more

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