Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and hit Yanbu in the same week. Everyone's asking who wins this war. In my line of work, when a dispute gets this far, the only question that matters is who has the leverage to walk away from the table. The answer might surprise you.
Everyone thinks the US has no exit strategy. Iran thinks the same thing. But look at what's actually happened in four weeks. No Iranian Navy. No ballistic missile "stockpile". IRGC leadership systematically removed. The Ayatollah's successor nowhere to be found. That's hardly a negotiating position. It looks more like desperation wearing a uniform.
Meanwhile Iran is choking on its own strategy. Tanker volume through Hormuz is a fraction of what it was. The countries they're still allowing through won't tolerate the extortion toll much longer. Their neighbors hate them more now than before this started. Every day this continues, the world accelerates its plans to route around Iran permanently. They haven't closed the Strait. They've made themselves irrelevant to it.
Iran was better off a month ago than it is today. When you come to the table with nothing but cheap drones and desperation, you don't set the terms. The off-ramp gets built on someone else's timeline. If you want to know what that means for energy prices and your money before it becomes obvious to everyone else, that's exactly what Breaking Metrics publishes every week.