I've been pricing oil and steel into public infrastructure contracts for 16 years. When Trump threatened to obliterate Iranian power plants on Sunday, crude dipped, then surged past $111. The market got more information and repriced fast. It's telling you this isn't over.
21 million barrels a day move through Hormuz. Oil slid on the ultimatum anyway. China's renewable push is like buying flood insurance on a house it already knew was underwater. India resumed Iranian imports after seven years and the headlines are calling it a geopolitical realignment, but the simpler read is that India bought the cheapest barrel available. Anyone who's managed a supply chain knows the difference between a foreign policy statement and procurement.
China scrambling, India buying cheap, and oil sliding on a military ultimatum all landed in the same weekend, and they're not three separate stories. If you want to understand what ties them together, Breaking Metrics has been tracking the energy, infrastructure, and strategy angle on this conflict for weeks. Everything's right here: breakingmetrics.substack.com
