Thailand just asked China to help get 8 Thai ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. China said it can't. It has 70 of its own ships stuck there. That detail reframes everything you're reading about the "Iran negotiations" and how you should be pricing oil in the coming months.
Iran's biggest customer and loudest economic backer has 70 vessels stranded in the strait. You don't strand your patron's fleet to squeeze Washington. That's hardly leverage and it's exactly why the US blockade is working.
The headlines today read "talks stalled," "Iran's latest proposal," "Trump weighs offer." All of it assumes Tehran is negotiating from strength. It isn't. Iran has 12-22 days of oil storage left (Kpler). Exports collapsed from 1.85M bpd in March to 567K. Another 1.5M bpd of forced production cuts coming by mid-May. This isn't a standoff. It's a country running out of tank space.
Brent at $111. US gas at $4.18. Energy equities ripping, BP doubled Q1 profit. This isn't a risk premium being negotiated up or down. It's the price of the gap between now and whenever Tehran formally folds. One side has $111 Brent and a Navy. The other has 22 days of storage and a crippling economy.
The UAE just announced it's leaving OPEC May 1 during a war with Brent at $111. They're doing it now because they want unconstrained capacity ready to flood the market the day Hormuz reopens. That's a sovereign betting this ends in weeks.
The trade isn't "oil stays expensive." It likely stays elevated through May, then a capitulation headline takes 10-15 off Brent in a session. Equities outperform crude on the way down. My free newsletter covers this and so much more: https://www.breakingmetrics.com