Divided Demand: Are “Parallel Economies” Taking Shape?

U.S. consumption is fragmenting along political lines. Boycotts/buycotts are flowing into real sales, “values-aligned” channels are scaling, and more shoppers say they spend with their politics. The risk isn’t a full economic split—it’s thicker, semi-segregated niches that shift pricing power, margins, and valuations.

Identity is showing up at the register. Expect brand-level winners/losers more than macro volume changes.

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What changed?

The country is processing a political tragedy and its media shockwaves. After Charlie Kirk’s Sept 10 assassination, ABC pulled/suspended Jimmy Kimmel Live! “indefinitely” following his on-air remarks; boycott calls toward ABC/Disney surfaced across social and local affiliates. That sequence—grief → speech fights → brand sorting—is how identity spills into demand. Expect more event-driven boycott/buycott surges and higher brand-safety/security costs at media and platforms. (Precision matters: suspended/pulled, not “fired.”) It’s also important to note for those shouting “fascism” that ABC voluntarily pulled Jimmy Kimmel off air – this had nothing to do with executive directives.

Flashpoints now reallocate attention, ad dollars, and spend—especially in media and discretionary CPG where switching is cheap.

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Why this is investable (not just cultural noise)

• Boycotts can persist when switching is cheap. In Bud Light’s case, sales and purchase incidence were materially lower months later—evidence that a salient flashpoint + easy substitutes can dent share beyond the news cycle.
• Stated intent is rising. Multiple polls this year show more Americans aligning purchases with politics, with some abandoning favorite stores over perceived stances. That’s demand reallocation—less about total spend, more about who captures it.
• Supply is reorganizing. “Values” marketplaces like PublicSquare (PSQH) are adding merchants and revenue (profits lag), signaling thicker identity-aligned shelves on the margin. Think parallel shelves, not a parallel economy.

Category economics matter. Low switching cost + high salience → persistent share damage; high lock-in → noise over impact.

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Where the split shows up (and where it won’t)

• Most exposed: discretionary CPG (beer, coffee, snacks), quick apparel, media/platforms, payments/fintech rails attached to those ecosystems. Switching is cheap; identity cues are loud.
• Least exposed: utilities, healthcare, and high-lock-in services—switching costs/mandates mute political substitution.
• Policy spillovers: state–corporate feuds can still shape capex and guidance language even when resolved (e.g., Disney–Florida’s 15-year plan).

Expect “semi-segregated niches,” not a full split. The loudest identity effects live in discretionary, low-friction categories.

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Charts you can wire fast

We can see in the chart above how divisive language has skyrocketed for Disney and ABC in the past week.

This is a prototype of what’s to come.

I’m working on building a “Politics” page on Glideslope.ai that measures political language by major brands. Scanning over 100,000 news articles, the feature will use AI to determine how language impacts these brands over time.

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What this means for Q4 positioning

• Favor resilience over narrative. Own staples/services with high switching costs and low political salience; they hold pricing power when the tape polarizes.
• Trade the event windows, not the headlines. In beer/quick apparel, treat boycott weeks as volatility regimes; hedged pairs beat hero punts.
• Pick the identity winner when a rival faces repeat flashpoints—document share-steal rather than guessing sentiment.
• Media: underwrite brand-safety operating expenses. Watch CPM softness, ad minutes, and guidance tied to moderation/security after politicized incidents.

Position for dispersion. Category selection + switching costs matter more than calling macro.

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Sources

• Charlie Kirk — assassination & aftermath: AP News timeline and campus impact pieces; memorial coverage. AP News+2AP News+2
• ABC / Jimmy Kimmel Live! suspension/pull & affiliate actions: Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, The Independent; Nexstar affiliate notice. Nexstar Media Group, Inc.+5Variety+5Variety+5
• Polls — shoppers aligning spend with politics: Harris Poll coverage via Axios and The Guardian; Harris consumer-spending topic hub. Axios+2The Guardian+2
• Bud Light boycott persistence: Harvard Business Review (Mar 20, 2024) + related case/notes. Harvard Business Review+1
• “Values” rails — PublicSquare (PSQH) & BRCC: PublicSq IR/financials; BRCC Q2 2025 results. PublicSquare+2PublicSquare+2
• State–corporate spillovers: Disney–Florida 15-year expansion plan (Reuters/AP). Reuters

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