The Setup
Coffee is one of the most volatile commodities, and Brazil is the epicenter. As the world’s largest arabica producer, its weather and harvest patterns ripple across global markets.
This summer alone, markets saw both extremes:
- August 2025: Arabica rallied to a 3.5-month high on dry conditions in Brazil. Less rain means weaker crops, tightening supply and pushing prices higher.
- July 2025: The opposite story played out. A strong harvest brought more beans to market, knocking prices lower as traders priced in abundant supply.
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