TL;DR

  • The equities market enjoyed its bear market rally but that momentum is wearing off
    • We saw that in pre-market this morning with SPY price starting lower than yesterday’s close
  • When the market is up and talking heads are bullish, that’s usually a good indicator for me to turn bearish
    • That doesn’t mean I necessarily sell everything, but it does mean I prepare to reload my long positions again

S&P 500 / $SPY

  • Topping formation just as predicted in the grey shaded box – waiting for prices to dip back down to support at $348 before loading in another round of buys

Bearish on Retail / Target

  • Target missed earnings 3 quarters in a row.
  • Clear bearish pennant formation
    • This price structure implies lower-lows are likely
    • I’m anticipating a test of ~$125 range if target misses earnings next quarter (March 2023)

Bearish on Copper / BHP


Bearish on Agriculture / Archer-Daniels-Midland

  • Price structure appears to be wrapping up the second peak to a double top formation
  • I’m betting this second top turns into a head and shoulders pattern and we retest support at ~$71
    • I will not be adding to my position here at $94
    • Instead, I’m being patient and waiting to see where price goes when we test the neckline at ~$82
  • RSI is oversold

Bearish on Crypto / Bitcoin

  • Two bearish signs that Bitcoin could be heading lower:
    1. Price is getting squeezed in a bearish pennant
    2. RSI is making higher-highs while price continues to make lower-highs
  • My target for the lows in this cycle remains somewhere in the ~$14k range
The Rebel Economist
Author: The Rebel Economist

Civil Engineer // Aviator // Photographer // Avid Coffee Enthusiast // Your investment strategies could differ from mine based on your risk tolerances, research, and time horizon, so I encourage you to do your own research as information provided by The Rebel Economist or Breaking Metrics should never be considered financial advice.

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