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Headwinds for Powell’s Soft Landing?

  • Macroeconomic conditions are still unfavorable, so I believe the markets will still experience some headwind going through 2023
  • Don’t confuse short bursts of market optimism for the general pessimism guiding prices since November 2021.
  • Asset titles (bolded and underlined) below now take you to a Fraywire link to view more data on the price.

S&P 500 / $SPY

  • We saw some nice upward momentum today on the S&P, which illustrates the strength of dollar-cost-averaging into assets if you can time the bottoms.
    • Where the S&P sits right now, I’m waiting for a correction to higher overbought levels on the daily RSI before adding more to my position.
  • Key levels for the SPY are $410 and $431
    • A price break above $410 tells us there’s still momentum in the market and we’re hitting headwinds
    • Price above $431 could trigger a run up to another all-time-high (but I’m not optimistic about this move)
  • Failure to break and hold above $410 could mean lower lows – confirmation of accumulation – and more buying opportunities for those of us averaging in on the market bottoms

Nvidia / $NVDA

  • The inverted Head & Shoulders pattern continues to play out exactly as predicted.
  • We can assume price will test $203 range (a previous resistance level where the neckline began)
    • RSI has a little more room left to the upside to get us near the $203 level
    • If tested, I’m expecting a correction back to the neckline where we bounce to make higher-highs
  • A significant break below the neckline after the correction could point to a pattern failure, so the upcoming correction and retest will be a critical moment for Nvidia price action

Civitas / $CIVI

  • Price action continues to snake through the pennant
  • Considering that the price structure is coming from a (slow) uptrend, I’m expecting the pennant to break-out instead of break-down.
  • The lows within the symmetrical triangle should present good buying opportunities for my long-term hold, assuming the pennant doesn’t breakdown and make lower-lows.

Bitcoin / $BTC

  • Just because price is up, doesn’t mean we’re positioned for another bull run aimed for a new all-time-high
  • Bitcoin has had several bear market rallies with significant upward price movements that did not print new highs
    • I believe 2023 will be one of those years where we test $30-40k Bitcoin and then drop back down for another correction before an actual bull run.
  • Running a fib retracement on recent price action, we can see Bitcoin at a key level here at ~$23k
  • The surges up in price are overdue for a correction. Daily RSI levels show prices heavily overbought and a move downward to $19k or $20k levels are more likely
  • Ideally, we’d like to see price consolidation between $21k and $25k over the next couple weeks – this will push the RSI levels down without sacrificing price back in the teens. The added cushion helps if we find some bad news that could impact the markets in the next couple months.

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